The restaurant industry is arguably the most competitive business in the U.S., with thousands of restaurant chains and new ones starting almost every day. And yet over the past 20 years, only 14 restaurant chains have appeared at one point on the list of the 10 largest, based on the Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report.
But that doesn’t mean the Top 10 hasn’t changed—it has, in many respects quite a bit—or that those changes aren’t instructive.
For this, we present this graphic, which shows you the 10 largest chains in 2004 and last year:
The Top 5
The five largest chains in 2004 were McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s, Subway and Taco Bell. McDonald’s over those 20 years has more than doubled its system sales, from $24 billion to $54 billion.
Of those five, only Taco Bell—which has tripled in size over that period—has kept pace.
Burger King, for instance, has grown sales by just 13% over that period, or about half a percent a year. It has fallen from the No. 2 chain to No. 8. Wendy’s has done better, growing by 60% over that period to remain a Top 5 chain.
Then there’s the roller-coaster that Subway has been on.
The sandwich chain doubled its sales between 2004 and 2013, from $6.7 billion to $12.3 billion, outpacing McDonald’s and becoming at one point the second-largest U.S. chain. But it has shed a quarter of its system sales since then and, at $9.5 billion, is the ninth-largest restaurant chain. It will almost certainly be No. 10 next year.
Taco Bell's success in this group, by the way, is indicative of where consumers are going, which is away from burgers and sandwiches and toward a variety of other options, which is also shown in the other growth brands on the Top 10.
Growth chains
Three restaurant chains have made their presence felt over these past 20 years and are indicative of the shift in the restaurant business away from traditional items like burgers and sandwiches to a broader mix of items.
Two of those chains were not even in the Top 10 in 2004: Chick-fil-A and Chipotle.
The chicken-sandwich chain in 2004 generated just $1.75 billion in system sales and was nowhere close to a Top 10 chain. It was less than half the size of the traditionally dominant chicken player, KFC.
Its surge since then has been famous. Even after a supposedly down year in 2024, it still generated $22.3 billion in sales—a 1,200% increase. That’s ridiculous.
And yet it was outdone.
Chipotle in 2004 generated just $500 million in system sales and it wasn’t even its own company, having been owned by McDonald’s. Last year the company did $11.25 billion in system sales. That’s 2,150% growth.
The third chain was Starbucks, which was the eighth-largest U.S. concept in 2004. It is now the second-largest, with more than $31 billion in system sales after a comparatively modest 582% growth.
But the trio show where consumers are today: They are far more likely to consume chicken or Mexican and they get beverages a lot more than they used to. Each of those three chains has revolutionized the restaurant industry, and their growth over the past two decades has shown that.
Goodbye Applebee’s
I completely forgot that Applebee’s was a Top 10 chain. But in 2004 it was the ninth-largest chain, with $3.89 billion in system sales. It has largely treaded water over the years since: It did $4.1 billion in system sales last year. It has lost its status as the largest casual-dining brand and is not even the largest bar-and-grill concept, having lost that title to Chili’s.
But it’s struggles and fall from the Top 10 is indicative of an industry that has gravitated heavily toward takeout from both quick-service and fast-casual chains.
Yum Brands loses steam
Yum operated three of the seven-largest U.S. chains in 2004, with Pizza Hut at No. 6 and KFC at No. 7.
Both brands are largely the same size they were 20 years ago. Both lost their status as the top concepts in their respective markets to Domino’s (Pizza Hut) and Chick-fil-A (KFC, which has also fallen behind Popeyes). But both have thrived outside the U.S.
Who’s next?
There was a $3 billion gap last year between the No. 10 chain Domino’s and the No. 11 chain Panda Express, though it would not be a surprise if the Asian concept ultimately made its way onto the Top 10.
But three chains could eventually get there. Texas Roadhouse has a legitimate shot of making the Top 10 at some point, as it continues to grow in the double digits every year. It was the 15th largest chain in 2024 and will likely leapfrog Pizza Hut, Popeyes and Panera Bread next year.
Two other chicken chains could get there, too. Raising Cane’s could get there in as little as little as three years if it continues its current growth rate—it grew sales by 32% last year and is a $5 billion chain at No. 18. Wingstop is close behind.